@grannyt,
It may be years before these supposed 100 new builds see the light of day, what cannot be denied though is that US interest rates are set to rise and this means local interest rates will rise due to the Dollar Peg. Already, Asia is witnessing a pullback on US dollars flowing into the region and China's economic miracle is coming to an end - combined this means less cash pouring into HK for Alpha returns - there's also the little question of approx. 50,000 unoccupied flats in Hong Kong, many purchased with the intention to flip, yet prices per foot have been dropping for the past three months according to the Governments own figures - and not those supplied by the nutters known as property agents.
With regards Lamma Island itself, the majority of apartments blocs on the Island were built prior to the year 2000, many are already beginning to show there age with regards the original shoddy building standards deployed here - look at the mains electrical wiring, water pipes and rusting of the bar used in the concrete construction - none of this augers well for those who have paid highly inflated prices over the past 30 months - the repair bills are large and our humidity levels just make matters all the more worse.
This is the second property bubble I've witnessed in Hong Kong, the last one coinciding with the Handover - shame of the matter is, wages for most have not kept up with HK inflation, hence, it seems nuts for Landlords to ask HK$16-20,000 for flats on this Island, for what effectively is at best 630 square feet of usable space, particularly when most of these units have no actual views, and that's before we look at transport costs per month and lack of decent broadband for those who work from home.
Now, here's the ruse, for those who have purchased since 2010 and paid in excess of HK$2.5-3million, a rise in interest rates is going to hurt, and that means pushing flat rentals higher - which will flatten demand, or basically losing any interest on invested capital, and that's before we look at repairs again as the stock gets older and more dilapidated, as many have not bothered to undertake necessary repairs after paying high purchase price.
The story may be different for flats built after about 2006, but for those built prior to 2000, many are in for a rude shock.
Also, it really is dog shite village here, and that's before one encounters creepy crawlies, flooding and a good Typhoon season, which we have avoided for three years - add it all up, and huge investments are not a great idea on this Island - DB and Park Island, yes, but this place won't be worth living in once they start ripping up the paths again and making life miserable for everyone.
me, if the landlord has failed to sell the flat for the HK$3million he expects, I may stay another year or two, but Park Island at 10K a month now sounds tempting and its ferry service is a damn sight more safer than ours!!!
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